Aluminum prices show a high downward trend, and the short-term decline may slow down

Last week, Lun aluminum rushed back down, and the overall performance still rose slightly, with a cumulative increase of about 1.
1% as of Friday; After standing firmly at the 2900 mark during the week, it rushed higher again, rising to 3030 and breaking through the 3000 mark; However, with the decline in European electricity prices and the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, aluminum prices continue to fall, and the short-term may be able to temporarily stabilize above
2900.

On the macro level, the news of aluminum plant shutdown caused by the sharp rise in European electricity prices during the week gradually decreased, the supply interference factors subsided, and the momentum of aluminum price rise was insufficient; In addition, according to research reports from Goldman Sachs and other institutions, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates at least four times in 2022, which is more
than the three widely believed by the market since the end of December last year.
From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, although the social treasury has continued to decline during the week, the actual consumption of the market has declined, and the reason for destocking is more due to the lack of actual arrivals in various places due to disruption factors such as the epidemic
.

In terms of the market, the Spring Festival is approaching, the demand of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the market transaction volume has declined significantly due to the impact of epidemic transportation in some regions, and it is expected that the transaction volume will continue to decline
as the holiday of enterprises gradually increases.

In East China, the European energy crisis led to the continuous fermentation of news of aluminum plant production cuts, stimulating aluminum prices to rise again, but affected by weak demand, the market is worried about the epidemic, aluminum prices gave up most of the gains, the overall performance of the week soared and fell, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum quotations between 21160-21200 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton
.

In South China, as of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot tickets was between 21370-21470 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton from the previous month, and the increase was still inferior to East China
.
It is understood that the holiday time of local enterprises is generally a few days later than that in East China, and the transaction is mostly reflected in the needs of some enterprises to prepare for the Spring Festival and after the holiday, and the overall transaction is limited
.

On the whole, due to the current overseas supply gap still exists, coupled with the continuous dematerialization of inventory, short-term London aluminum or difficult to collapse down, mostly based on shock adjustment, in the future market, considering that the loose monetary policy of various countries or have tightened, interest rate hike expectations or further pressure on aluminum prices, London aluminum can refer to the fluctuation range of 2860-2980
.