Aluminum prices rebounded slightly before the holiday, but the overall center of gravity shifted downward

In terms of inventories, mid-week aluminum ingot stocks rose by 2.
7 to 613,000 tons from last week, and the accumulation inflection point was established
in the last week of December.

On the demand side, domestic demand weakened month-on-month in December, and in addition to seasonality, various production restrictions in many places also led to additional lower demand, which will boost this part after the recent lifting of restrictions
.
Entering January, demand will further weaken due to seasonality, except for packaging and electronics demand still maintain stable orders, other sectors are mostly in the situation
of declining orders and gradually declining operating rates.

On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continued to rise, slightly exceeding previous expectations from a new increase in December (nearly 400,000 tons), while the import window was still open and supply maintained an upward trend
.

After the recent macro uncertainty landed, the overall atmosphere was optimistic again, which formed a certain support
for aluminum prices.
However, the fundamental face of the impact of the price short-term dominance, last week inventory inflection point finally established, considering that demand will further fall and the continuous growth of supply, the important factors supporting aluminum prices have changed, aluminum prices will be in a phased decline, short-term recommendations are short, the actual accumulation range and the expected difference will determine the range of prices
.