Aluminum prices may not rebound quickly, and the fundamental improvement remains to be verified by time

On the supply side, domestically, Shanxi carried out peak shifting production
in the autumn and winter of 2021-2022.
Time of peak shifting: from November 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022; Peak shifting production range: Autumn and winter peak shifting production
for enterprises in key gas-related industries such as steel, coking, nonferrous metals (electrolytic aluminum, alumina), casting, chemical industry, and building materials.

On the demand side, in terms of aluminum plate and foil, after the price of raw materials fell, enterprises have increased their enthusiasm to buy, but the overall upstream and downstream consumption is relatively weak, aluminum plate traders and terminal enterprises have pressure to stock up, and the vast majority of finished product inventories of plate and strip foil enterprises maintain low operation
.
The power rationing policy in Jiangsu has been eased, the production impact of aluminum plate enterprises is limited, reducing production by about 10%-15%, and the implementation of power rationing policy in Fujian is relatively large, and aluminum plate enterprises have reduced production by 30%.

But the aluminum foil industry is still hot
.
In terms of aluminum rods, downstream cable companies just need to purchase, aluminum rod enterprise orders are basically full, most enterprises have pre-sale phenomenon, the cost of aluminum rod enterprises purchased aluminum water has increased, superimposed on the early production reduction and production of aluminum rod enterprises resumption time is undecided, the overall supply of aluminum rods is tight
.
In terms of aluminum profiles, the power rationing in East China is gradually contacted, aluminum profile companies work overtime to resume production, and new orders increase slightly after the fall in aluminum prices, but due to the large fluctuation of aluminum prices within the day, the risk is higher, and the willingness of manufacturers to receive goods is not strong, especially against large orders
.
Power cuts in South China have also been relaxed, production scheduling and delivery times have been greatly shortened, and transaction conditions have begun to improve
.

In terms of stocks, social stocks, as of October 28, 2021, China's electrolytic aluminum social stocks were 985,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from last week, and an increase of 250,000 tons
from mid-August to mid-October.
Exchange inventory, as of October 29, the previous aluminum inventory was 287345 tons, an increase of 17,743 tons from the previous period, and the aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 134985 tons, an increase of 4,968 tons
from the previous month.

During the decline in coal prices, aluminum prices were greatly affected, and the overall high level was weak and fluctuated, which was not easy to operate
.
At present, the restrictions on the supply side of aluminum are still there, but the power rationing on the consumer side is gradually lifted, which is conducive to the improvement of the balance of supply and demand and the dematerialization of inventory.

After the bottom of coal prices, the disturbance of aluminum prices will be reduced, and it is expected that in the context of the lifting of power cuts and the recovery of demand stimulated by the fall in aluminum prices, aluminum prices are expected to rebound moderately, and it is recommended to pay attention to 19500-20000 support
.