Aluminum prices have stabilized and rebounded, still facing pressure to adjust again

On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 39.
3 million tons at the end of 2020.

Domestic production in January is expected to reach 3.
3 million mt, up 8%
year-on-year.
In terms of imports, the import profit window opened sharply in November, imported goods arrived at Hong Kong from mid-to-late December, customs declaration inflows rose significantly in January, and supply margin increased
.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of aluminum downstream processing sectors has declined to varying degrees, in addition to non-market factors such as logistics, environmental protection, and gas restrictions, the problem of weakening terminal orders has gradually emerged
.
Among them, the weakening of construction orders is relatively obvious, and the orders of the automotive sector are relatively strong
.

In terms of inventory, domestic aluminum ingot social stocks increased by 20,000 tons month-on-month to 684,000 tons, and transportation hindered the recovery of inventories, but they will eventually be cashed
in.

On the whole, Biden's "trillion" economic stimulus plan is difficult to falsify, and the short-term focus on progress and the negative impact
of the outbreak of the epidemic in multiple points in China on risk appetite.
Fundamentally, domestic output in January increased by 8% year-on-year to 3.
3 million tons, while imported goods still flowed in January, consumption has seasonal weakening pressure, spot inventory into an accelerated accumulation state, although logistics affect short-term arrivals, so that the accumulation rate slows down, but the later accumulation faces concentrated cashing, short-term Shanghai aluminum rebound target of 15200, later still face pressure to adjust again
.