Aluminum prices have risen to a certain extent, supported by raw material and electricity costs

On the supply side, Europe's energy problems still exist, and Russia has cut off the continued supply of gas to Europe, and reserves natural gas to cope with domestic winter heating
.
According to SMM, the total production reduction announced by European smelters has exceeded 800,000 tons
.
Among them, Europe's largest aluminum smelter Aluminium Dunkerque Industries announced a 3% reduction in production, the second largest aluminum plant Alcoa's San Cipian Works plant in Spain announced a two-year shutdown, Dutch aluminum plant Aldel, Slovakian aluminum plant Slovalco, Germany Trimet aluminum began to reduce production
。 The power shortage problem in Inner Mongolia has been greatly alleviated, and the resumption of production has been launched in December, and the production may be accelerated; According to SMM's recent resumption of production in Yunnan and Qinghai, the resumption of production plans in Shanxi and Guangxi has been put on the agenda, and the short-term domestic operating capacity recovery speed has exceeded expectations
.

On the demand side, the Spring Festival will come to the downstream to start to stop production and holiday, and procurement efforts continue to weaken
.
The average operating rate of the downstream leading processing industry continued to decline by 1.
6% to 66.
8%.

Aluminum plate and strip enterprises have abundant orders, the epidemic situation in Henan has gradually been controlled, raw material transportation has returned to a normal rhythm, and the operating rate has increased by 4% to 83% weekly, because most plants have been closed in advance, and the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises has fallen by 2.
1% to 72.
3%; Aluminum cable enterprise orders fell sharply, coupled with the reduction of production personnel before the holiday, the operating rate fell by 0.
6% to 50.
6%; Large aluminum foil enterprises did not stop work during the Spring Festival and had abundant orders, and the operating rate remained stable at 83.
7%; Recycled aluminum enterprises have basically been in the rhythm of early price release, and the operating rate has fallen sharply by 6.
3% to 49.
6%.

In terms of inventory, exchange inventory, LME maintained the rhythm of destocking, with 25,600 tons to 865,900 tons in the week; the pace of Shanghai aluminum destocking slowed down, with 27,900 tons to 282,700 tons
in the week.
In terms of social stocks, alumina accumulated 68,000 tons to 318,000 tons during the week, and the current inventory is at a historical low; the inflection point of the electrolytic aluminum social library has just appeared, and the accumulation of 20,000 tons to 726,000 tons
during the week has been slightly accumulated.

During the week, the aluminum rod maintained the accumulation rhythm, the inflection point of aluminum ingot accumulation first appeared, and the long holiday effect made the destocking cycle at the beginning of the year longer, and it is expected that the accumulation range after the holiday may be stronger than last year and weaker than previous years
.
In addition, there is a possibility of light hedging of funds before the holiday, be wary of the recent long exit, and continue to pay attention to the progress of
European energy and the global epidemic.