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Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated upward, Monday and Thursday electrolytic aluminum social library continued to decrease, market sentiment was relatively high, Friday due to the United States or sanctions again Russian aluminum rumors, Lun aluminum intraday rose nearly 3%, driving Shanghai aluminum to continue to rise
.
On Friday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum AL2101 rose 315 yuan, or 1.
91%, to open at 16495 yuan, the highest intraday 16805 yuan, the lowest 16480 yuan, to the close of 16780 yuan
.
Macro: On the 20th local time, the two parties in the United States finally reached a $900 billion relief bill, which will provide funds and epidemic-related assistance to the government; The US vaccine was approved and began vaccination last week, and countries such as Canada have also put large-scale vaccination on the agenda; At 3:00 a.
m.
Beijing time last Thursday (December 17), the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its latest interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.
25%, the excess reserve ratio (IOER) unchanged at 0.
1%, and the discount rate unchanged at 0.
25%, in line with the market's general expectations
.
On the supply side: China's average daily production of primary aluminum in November set a record high
.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum production in November increased from a year earlier, with average daily production hitting a record high, and more smelting capacity came online
amid strong demand and high aluminum prices.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.
Stocks: LME stocks fell by 4,275 tonnes to 1,367,000 tonnes on Friday, stocks last week dematerialized by 1,875 tonnes to 212,700 tonnes, and previous warehouse receipts fell 5,380 tonnes to 70,666 tonnes
.
According to the data on December 17, compared with the statistics on December 14, the destocking was 06,000 tons, which was 598,000 tons
.
Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price
.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, the price of alumina is still maintained at a low level of about 2,300 yuan, and the current profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry has reached more than 3,000 yuan, and the production profit is still in a high position from a historical point of view, and the high profit has lasted for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
