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Overnight, the internal and external aluminum prices continued to fluctuate strongly
.
At the beginning of the week, domestic inventories continued to increase in ingots, comprehensive inventories increased slightly, and the accumulation time was approaching
.
After the end of the delivery, East China spot rose slightly, and the current inventory and basis level are neutral
.
Alumina and thermal coal showed a recovery trend, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum bottomed out
in stages.
The medium-term shock trend of Shanghai aluminum has not changed, and the short-term consumption weakening price may be repeated, and it will be treated
as a high shock for the time being.
In terms of fundamentals, after the correction of the dual-control atmosphere, various places have begun to resume production, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, Shanxi and other provinces is expected to increase slightly, and the domestic operating capacity will continue to rise
.
In terms of cost and profit, it is estimated that the local shutdown will affect the output of alumina by about 1.
37 million tons, accounting for 22% of the national alumina production, or will cause the overall production of alumina to decline in February, which will form a significant support for alumina prices and even stimulate price increases
.
Therefore, under the condition that coal and electricity prices stabilize, there is still a risk of rising costs on the cost side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent disturbance of alumina prices on corporate profits
.
On the demand side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises near the Spring Festival have successively stopped work and holiday, and demand has weakened
.
In terms of stocks, as of January 17, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 722,000 tons, a change of -02,000 tons
from the previous week.
On January 18, LME aluminium stocks moved from the previous session by -8,675 tonnes to 884125 tonnes
.
The domestic aluminum ingot social library continues to go to storage, as the downstream is successively on holiday, it is necessary to pay close attention to the inventory inflection point, and it is expected that there will be an inventory inflection point
in the near future.
In terms of price, the margin of supply and demand tends to be loose or makes it difficult for aluminum prices to have greater upward momentum, but overseas production cuts and tightening supply of raw materials still support aluminum prices below, it is recommended to treat the idea of bargaining and long in the short term, and need to be vigilant against the pullback
of aluminum prices caused by the exit of bulls caused by safe-haven demand.
