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Recently, aluminum prices still maintain high volatility, LME aluminum inventories continue to decline and European energy supply is tight and aluminum companies stop reducing production to support aluminum prices, the risk of geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is cooling, the impact on aluminum prices is weak, and the market continues to pay attention to the support of the market due to the disturbance of aluminum supply in Europe and China
.
In terms of news, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released a report on February 16 showing that the global supply of primary aluminum was 1.
931 million tons from January to December 2021, and the oversupply was 1.
041 million tons
in 2020.
Primary aluminum demand from January to December 2021 was 69.
06 million tons, an increase of 5.
015 million tons
over the same period in 2020.
From January to December 2021, global primary aluminum production increased by 3.
1%
compared with 2020.
China's production is expected to be 38.
5026 million tons, accounting for about
57% of the world's total production.
China's apparent demand was 5.
1%
higher than the same period in 2020.
China became a net exporter
of unwrought aluminum in 2020.
Global primary aluminum demand in 2021 increased by 7.
8%
compared to the previous year.
In December 2021, global primary aluminum production was 5.
5133 million tons, and the demand was 5.
6788 million tons
.
In terms of fundamentals, the tight supply of energy and natural gas in Europe has not eased, and Russia's withdrawal of some troops has eased regional tensions, but the market is still concerned about the damage to European aluminum production capacity and the impact of China's domestic environmental protection and epidemic on aluminum production, and aluminum prices continue to run
high.
In terms of spot, on February 16, Shanghai Metal Network spot aluminum ingot quotation of 22570-22610 yuan / ton, the average price fell 90 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods on that day was acceptable, the East China market receiving price was around 22590 yuan / ton, on the whole, the trading activity of the aluminum ingot spot market improved compared with previous days
.
In terms of inventories, LME aluminum stocks fell by 3,025 tons to 857225 tons on February 16, down more than 60%
from the high of 1.
96 million tons in March last year.
Shanghai aluminum stocks 296794 tons, still at the lowest level
since the fourth quarter of last year.
At present, the main 2203 contract of Shanghai aluminum continues to fluctuate at a high level, and the futures price holds the 10-day moving average of 22650, and the market volatility is small
.
