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Shanghai aluminum continued to be weak last week, with a cumulative weekly decline of about 0.
59%; Aluminum prices fluctuated more frequently
during the week.
Eurozone economic output has contracted, inventories in the last period hit a two-month high, and the impact of the traditional off-season on consumption is still lingering, and aluminum is expected to fall
slightly today.
On the supply side, the profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to remain high, stimulating the new production in August to accelerate slightly, but the increase in production in August and September mainly came from the new production capacity in May and June, so the output in August only climbed slightly, and the output in October will increase
significantly.
The window for aluminum ingot imports closed this week, and it is expected that aluminum ingot imports will gradually shrink to a normal state
in July, August and September.
On the demand side, new orders for profiles weakened due to off-season factors, but did not affect production
scheduling.
The plate belt has good saturation during operation; Decreased cable operating rate; Recycled aluminum and primary aluminum alloys edged higher
on the back of the recovery of automobiles.
Consumption off-season factors are emerging, but sector differentiation weakens the off-season effect
.
In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase by 12,000 tons to 737,000 tons, and the inflection point of inventory was basically confirmed
.
On the whole, the high profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry stimulated the progress of new investment projects, but in July and August, due to the limited new investment capacity in the early stage, the output increase was not much
.
In terms of demand, downstream consumption has shown a certain differentiation, new orders for profiles have weakened, cable operating rates have declined, automotive aluminum has recovered, and sector differentiation will weaken the off-season effect
.
Mid-August was in the off-season of consumption, and Shanghai aluminum retraced to the 20-day moving average near
the oscillation.
From a medium-term perspective, the cumulative production capacity in May and June was 425,000 tons, making it difficult for output to meet the demand of the next peak season, and the overall idea is more
.
