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Shanghai aluminum fell at a high level this week, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.
28%; Short-term macro good news on the price boost effect or has been exhausted, return to fundamentals and supply and demand, aluminum prices are weak and difficult to change, need to be vigilant against the risk of further pullback, pay attention to the range of 1.
85-19,300 range
.
This week, Lun aluminum showed a trend of rushing back down, with a cumulative decline of about 0.
9%; In the short term, under the pressure of policy, it is difficult for Lun aluminum to have a strong performance, or weaken again, focusing on the range of 2600-2680
.
At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the previous high shock operating range, with this year's peak (October 19, 2021) aluminum ingot market average price of 124240 yuan / ton, has recently fallen by 20.
65%.
Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price of 15726.
67 yuan / ton, the cumulative increase was reduced to 22.
30%.
In the early stage, aluminum prices fell rapidly, and the price began to stabilize in the near future, but the actual demand is still relatively general, and the social inventory is still high, and it is expected to stabilize in the short term and the upside narrows
.
Domestically, the real estate policy is relaxed, and the news is favorable to market expectations; In terms of international news, rising inflation in the United States and the Indonesian president once again reiterated the ban on the export of bauxite in 2022, boosting market sentiment
.
At present, in the domestic spot market, the overall trading is weak, although the holders are actively shipping, but the downstream procurement is cautious, and the on-demand procurement is mainly
low.
Recent inventories have been high year-on-year and slightly down
month-on-month.
The future market predicts that the recent aluminum ingot bottom will stabilize, but the actual demand is still relatively general, the social inventory is still high, and it is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the upside is narrowed, and the operating range is 18800-19500 yuan / ton
.
