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Recently, after the aluminum price continued to destocking and there were signs of stabilization on the cost side, it rebounded sharply, up 795 yuan / ton month-on-month, and the main futures 2022 contract closed at 19745 yuan / ton
.
On the macro front, the dollar index strengthened again on Friday, rising above 96.
6, and the market is still optimistic about the Fed's Taper and interest rate hike expectations, forming support for the dollar, which is about to enter the European and American holidays this week, and trading is expected to be relatively light
.
On the supply side, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the output of electrolytic aluminum in November was 3.
101 million tons, down 1.
8% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to November was 35.
447 million tons, an increase of 5.
7%
year-on-year.
On the demand side, the output of aluminum in November was 5.
202 million tons, down 3.
8% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to November was 55.
612 million tons, an increase of 8.
1% year-on-year; The output of aluminum alloy in November was 906,000 tons, down 0.
3% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to November was 9.
552 million tons, up 12.
9%
year-on-year.
On the demand side, near the end of the year, electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to go to storage, the reason is partly because of the fear of the impact of the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates, large and medium-sized aluminum factories around the country generally appear "rush to export" situation, but from the aluminum plate and foil, aluminum rod, aluminum rod and other demand, near the end of the year, most aluminum companies and dealers on this year's orders to close the work, return funds, expected consumption improvement space is not much
.
Cost side: Alumina shows signs of actual production cuts in some areas, and coal prices have begun to stabilize, all of which support aluminum prices
.
Overall, due to the dual control of energy consumption and the impact of the Beijing Winter Olympics, the market has maintained expectations for the production limit of the electrolytic aluminum industry, but there is no sign of actual production reduction from the actual operating capacity, and it is expected to remain stable
during the year.
