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In May, aluminum prices are strong outside and weak inside, Shanghai aluminum trend is slightly weak, the beginning of the month by the decline of London aluminum dragged down, and the market restart capacity electrolytic aluminum production capacity bearish aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum main force all the way down, the lowest down to 13570, the market hopes that Shandong to capacity policy introduced, then stop the decline and stabilize, back to around 14,000, although Shandong policy to reduce production capacity has not yet made substantial progress, but traders firm selling prices make aluminum prices firm, aluminum prices into a dilemma
。 Technically, domestic inventories continue to increase, demand is weak, and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike in June is imminent, aluminum prices may not have a big rise, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will fall first and then rise in June, and focus on the 13500 key support
below.
In the external market, in May, London aluminum first fell and then rose, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates in June probability of 78.
5%, and crude oil prices collapsed, Lun aluminum fell all the way, the lowest intraday down to $1862.
5, and then bottomed out, back above $1900, the highest climbed to $1968
.
Technically, the support of the 1900 mark is obvious, but the Fed rate hike in June is imminent, the market expects the possibility of raising interest rates, so before the interest rate hike, Lun aluminum or into a volatile trend, it is expected that in June London aluminum will continue to maintain the trend of first falling and then rising, and the range of 1860-1980 US dollars fluctuates
.
In terms of the market, the current constraints of the aluminum market are in the supply-side reform, but the specific implementation is facing uncertainty, although the theoretical production reduction is large, but the actual supply gap may be far less than the market previously expected
.
Even if the recent reduction in alumina production has pushed up the cost of electrolytic aluminum, it may only slightly erode the current huge profits of aluminum plants, which is not enough to suppress the supply of electrolytic aluminum, and the overall supply and demand situation during the year should not be optimistic
.
On the last trading day of May, aluminum prices rose slightly and the market showed signs of recovery, but in the current off-season, buyers are still cautious
in purchasing.
At present, aluminum stocks in Guangdong remain above 320,000 tons, and entering June, market liquidity is expected to tighten, and in the case of continued weakening demand, buyers' willingness to buy goods is low, and it is expected that the front-month aluminum price will fluctuate
around 13,700.
It is expected that aluminum prices will fall first and then recover in June, and the fluctuation range of London aluminum is 1860-1980 US dollars; The main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in the range of 1.
34-14,300
.
