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As of the close of 3 pm today, the main 2208 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down at 17995, down 10, or 0.
06%; Intraday aluminum prices are still dominated by sideways volatility, and the disk repeatedly tested the 18,000 pressure level, and the short-term failed to effectively break through and stand firm
.
The recent macro sentiment has been repaired from the extreme pessimism in the early stage, giving aluminum prices room to rebound, but the weak fundamentals are difficult to push up aluminum prices to a large recovery
.
Overseas, yesterday the European Central Bank announced a 50BP interest rate hike, and the macro pressure increased again, which is also the main reason for
the slight decline in aluminum prices overnight.
From a fundamental point of view, because the aluminum price has fallen to the 1W7 mark recently, it has stimulated
downstream buying demand.
On Thursday, aluminum ingots were destocked by 29,000 tons to 668,000 tons, and aluminum rods were destocked by 03,100 tons to 95,400 tons
.
The short-term improvement of downstream procurement can form a temporary support for aluminum prices, but if the macro environment turns sharply again, the industrial benefit will be difficult to match the macro pessimistic expectations
.
On the supply side, the resumption of production in Gansu and Guangxi is still in progress, but low aluminum prices threaten the economic benefits of resuming production, or delay the progress of production increase
.
However, in terms of costs, there are concerns about the weakening of the market, and if coal prices fall as expected by then, the cost collapse will further drag aluminum prices down
.
In addition, Russia announced that it will resume Nord Stream 1 gas transmission as scheduled, while Europe said it would reduce natural gas demand by 15%, which caused natural gas prices to fall
.
If natural gas prices fall significantly, costs will collapse
overseas.
According to the latest news, Nord Stream 1 will resume about 30%-40% of traffic, although the European energy crisis concern is not the focus of the current transaction, but as an important risk point, it is still recommended to continue to pay attention
.
In summary, the short-term aluminum price downward or hindered, or into a state of consolidation, but the medium and long-term macro pressure, and the fundamentals can not see the upward drive, the downward trend is difficult to change, it is recommended to wait and see
.
