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Overnight Lun aluminum closed the market, Shanghai aluminum night close flat
.
Recently to strong volatility, at present, aluminum prices in the short term driving is still at the raw material end of alumina, not bearish in the near term, or will continue to stabilize and rebound, electrolytic aluminum has support, the medium-term trend still needs to be further followed up by the macro situation, at present, the macro drive is still bearish
.
On the macro front, the U.
S.
Dallas Fed manufacturing index in August was stronger than expected, Trump's optimistic comments on the outlook for trade talks eased market panic, and non-ferrous metals generally picked up
overnight.
Germany's August IFO business sentiment, current situation and expectations index were lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the German economy is still in recession
.
From the perspective of the industry, the previously announced electrolytic aluminum social inventory turned to a small destocking, and the small accumulation and destocking in the off-season background did not exceed expectations, in line with the characteristics of
the off-season.
The price of alumina at the raw material end has rebounded, the price of alumina in most regions has been raised, the current national average price has risen above 2490, it is expected that the later alumina will continue to rebound more likely, the raw material end cost line has a certain support for the later aluminum price operation, and has become the main driver
of the current aluminum price in the short term.
The recent prices of downstream aluminum profiles, aluminum plates and aluminum rods reflect that the downstream consumption situation is acceptable, and there is no
weakening beyond expectations.
In terms of spot, the transaction price in Shanghai Wuxi market is between 14250-14270 yuan / ton, the flat water to the premium of the opposite plate is 30-40 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is around
14250-14270 yuan / ton.
In terms of inventory, the LME was closed, and the aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 145651 tons, a decrease of 1050 tons
compared with the previous trading day.
On August 26, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipts): Shanghai area 197,000 tons, Wuxi area 311,000 tons, Hangzhou area 56,000 tons, Gongyi area 107,000 tons, South China Sea area 288,000 tons, Tianjin 55,000 tons, Linyi 12,000 tons, Chongqing 17,000 tons, consumption of aluminum ingot inventory totaled 1.
043 million tons, down 20,000 tons
from last Thursday.
There is still support below the short-term Shanghai aluminum, but the weak consumption is difficult to rise again, aluminum prices or around the 14200 line of shock, observe the inventory and consumption changes in September, and wait and see
for the time being.
