Aluminum prices are mainly volatile and there is still room for correction in the short term

On the supply side, overseas, the European energy crisis has not yet eased, overseas electricity prices are high, and it will take a long time for aluminum plants to resume production; Domestically, dual control of energy consumption is still the main tone of the long term, and in the short term, affected by the Bose epidemic and the Winter Olympics, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is limited and reduced, and the supply has been disrupted to a certain extent
.
In addition, the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also caused the market to
expect supply to shrink.

On the demand side, in the short term, affected by many uncertainties overseas, LME 3-month aluminum showed a state of cargo premium, superimposed on domestic downstream enterprises starting work one after another, spot demand generally picked up
.

In the medium term, the central bank supports the economy, and the demand for infrastructure and real estate is expected
to pick up.
With the deregulation measures of the epidemic in Bose and the smooth holding of the Winter Olympics, the subsequent production of alumina will be resumed, the supply pressure will be reduced, the accumulation of social inventory will continue for a period of time, and there is still room for aluminum prices to pull back in the short term
.
In the long run, it is expected that terminal demand will pick up at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, and the demand side will support the rapid destocking of inventory, and aluminum prices will have a large upside in the medium and long term
.