Aluminum prices are mainly recommended in the short term, and the long-term is still optimistic

This week, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and other places once again limited power and production, and there is no hope of resuming production capacity in Yunnan in the early stage, and the commissioning of new production capacity may become a failure; Restricted production capacity in Guizhou is still unclear; The electricity load of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi needs to be reduced by 35%
on the basis of the average electricity load from January to June.

On the demand side, Guangdong and Jiangsu have introduced power rationing policies, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is limited, and small and medium-sized enterprises are more affected
.

In terms of terminals, the growth rate of cumulative new housing completed area rose in August, but under the background of stricter real estate policies, the market is still worried about the recovery of real estate demand; The problem of automobile lack of "core" is difficult to solve, and automobile production and sales are not performing well, but the new energy vehicle sector still maintains prosperity
.

In general, power rationing has a greater impact on the upstream and forms a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, inventories accumulated slightly this week, SMM domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 766,000 tons, weekly accumulation of 15,000 tons, or short-term to suppress the rise of aluminum prices
.
Strategically, it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level next week, with an operating range of around 22000-22800, short-term recommendations are mainly wait-and-see, and long-term is still optimistic
.