Aluminum price volatility strengthens need to continue to pay attention to downstream consumption

Overseas, Indonesia plans to ban bauxite and tin exports this year to support mining downstream construction, which has a relatively limited impact on China, and bauxite imports can be replaced
by Guinea and Australia.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April 2022 was about 175,300 tons, a decrease of 11.
08% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 37.
7%.

On the supply side, the domestic supply side basically maintained stable operation, the new electrolytic aluminum production capacity slowed down, and the production output in the early stage continued to be released
.
In terms of consumption, domestic imports fell in April, consumption was weak, midstream and downstream buyers were weak and wait-and-see, and the actual transaction of spot goods was mainly slightly
discounted.

In terms of cost, the spot circulation of alumina in the northern region has increased, but the cost of alumina has continued to rise, and the market game is in a state of
stalemate.

In terms of inventory, on May 19, 2022, SMM counted that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 965,000 tons, down 138,000 tons
from last Thursday's inventory.
As of May 19, LME aluminum stocks decreased by 0.
7225 tonnes from the previous session to 511,600 tonnes
.

With the improvement of the epidemic and the support of policies for transportation, domestic social inventories continued to destock during the week, and overseas inventories fell to about 510,000 tons, at a historical low
.

Overall, the weekly destocking and the continuous improvement of epidemic control support aluminum prices, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to downstream consumption, and in the current weak actual demand performance, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term
.