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Aluminum market afternoon commentary: China's infrastructure investment will be expected to boost consumption, overnight Lun aluminum closed up $47; Lun aluminum inventory fell to a new low, domestic destocking continued to boost the trend of aluminum prices, and production remained at a low level, and aluminum may rise
today.
Coal rose sharply yesterday, Lun aluminum rose sharply to close in Zhongyang, closing at $2658, Shanghai aluminum night high rose slightly, closing at 19275.
Shanghai aluminum trading fell and positions rose, market sentiment was optimistic
.
Policy factors have led to inactive trading of Shanghai aluminum, and the market may continue to fluctuate upward with Lunaluminum in the future
.
Upper pressure 22000, lower support 18500
.
Fundamentally, there has been no new production reduction on the supply side, but there will be no large-scale resumption of production for the time being, and the northern region may still experience decompression production
in the later stage due to the environmental protection requirements of the Winter Olympics and the double-limit policy.
On the cost side, with the further decline in alumina prices and the weighted average electricity price falling back to 0.
53 yuan / kWh, the losses of electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises have eased, and the production of some enterprises has returned to the break-even line
.
On the consumer side, the sentiment of cargo holders is gradually rising, the willingness of receiving goods to be bullish and purchasing is high, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable
.
With the easing of domestic power rationing pressure, downstream processing enterprises continue to pick up, outbound data performance is better, and consumption continues to improve month-on-month, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of downstream consumption improvement
.
In terms of inventory, the latest inventory data shows that domestic aluminum ingots are destocked, and the South China Sea and Wuxi regions contribute mainly to the decline
.
In terms of price, the current aluminum market fundamentals are relatively stable, the macro atmosphere is warming, and the aluminum ingot social library continues to support aluminum prices, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will fluctuate
.
