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Aluminum market consumption performance is not good
recently.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) cracked down on coal prices, triggering a sharp adjustment
of coal-based commodities in the early stage.
Short-term electrolytic aluminum cost support weakened, bull enthusiasm declined, the market began to pay attention to the weak demand ignored in the early stage, domestic accumulation put pressure on the price, aluminum may need time to adjust
.
However, the decline in coal prices is difficult to quickly transmit to the supply of aluminum, and if the supply of coal cannot be effectively supplemented, the fourth quarter still faces the risk
of expanding the scale of production reduction.
Power cuts in major consumption places such as East China began to slow down, and the decline in aluminum prices is conducive to boosting demand, and it is expected that there is still room for the social treasury to fall after the middle of the fourth quarter, which will also limit the adjustment space of aluminum prices
.
Since September, domestic power curtailment has spread from the upstream to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the operating rate of processing industries in East China and South China has decreased to varying degrees, restricting the purchase
of aluminum ingots.
In addition, as prices continued to rise to historical highs in the early stage, high prices had a certain inhibitory effect
on consumption.
From the inventory data, the output of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has always been low since September, and the domestic social library continues to accumulate, and the current aluminum ingot social library has risen to a neutral level of 970,000 tons, and Shanghai aluminum futures have also turned to a positive arrangement, and the spot has weakened significantly compared with the previous period
.
This time, with the sharp correction of aluminum prices, the suppression of consumption by high prices may slow down, which is objectively conducive to boosting demand
.
In addition, after the National Day, power cuts in East China began to slow down, and there is room for improvement on the consumption side, coupled with the expectation of tight supply in the fourth quarter, it is expected that there is still room for inventory to fall in the middle and late
quarters.
