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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate in operation
.
New investment and resumption of production capacity are progressing smoothly, downstream seasonally weakening, and inventories continue to increase by nearly 20,000 tons
at the beginning of the week.
However, the current inventory level is at a low level and the deliverable warehouse receipt is tight, and the support for aluminum prices is still there, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots is expected to be 100-150 yuan
after the change month.
The short-term Shanghai aluminum Wansi above the oscillation operation probability is large, pay attention to the inventory and monthly difference changes, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or short-term operation
.
Inventory data on Monday came at 757,000 mt, up 20,000 mt
from last week.
In August, the number of new orders for profiles, strips and cables gradually declined, the operating conditions of processing enterprises formed a differentiation, the orders of leading enterprises can still maintain the stable operation rate, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has declined due to insufficient orders, and domestic demand has further weakened, but it is expected to maintain growth
year-on-year.
In terms of exports, overseas is in the stage of economic recovery, but under the condition of high internal and external ratios, the increase in exports driven by the improvement of external demand is still limited, and exports are expected to remain low
.
On the supply side, the new production capacity mainly in Yunnan region continues to be released, according to the production plan, the capacity increase in the second half of the year will be significantly improved, and the supply growth trend will remain unchanged
.
Consumption off-season accumulation kicked off, inventory continued to accumulate, but the accumulation volume was actually less than expected, the weekly accumulation did not exceed 20,000 tons, and the process was not smooth, after the fall in aluminum prices, downstream procurement picked up
.
At present, the expectation that domestic aluminum ingot stocks in the off-season is expected to return to the level of 800,000-900,000 tons, and the absolute amount is still low, so the pace of prices actually depends on the control
of market bulls.
In the face of the peak season coming in September, inventory will usher in a downward inflection point, there is still a strong support for aluminum prices, and the short-term is still wait-and-see, paying attention to the downward rhythm of aluminum prices and subsequent accumulation
.
