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On the first day after the holiday, the main 1706 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 46950 yuan / ton, after the opening of Shanghai copper once rushed to 47100 yuan / ton, after the release of Caixin data in April, bulls have closed their positions outflow, domestic and foreign copper prices fluctuated back, after testing down to 46690 yuan / ton, stabilized under the support of the middle rail of Bollinger Road, and closed in the dark at 46790 yuan / ton, up 560 yuan / ton
.
Intraday Shanghai copper opened high and low, giving up some of the gains, it is expected that the market will still be dominated by high volatility, operating range of 46500-47000 yuan / ton, and the support
of the middle rail of Bollinger Road is tested.
Externally, due to US President Trump's announcement of infrastructure plans in the next 2-3 weeks, and at the same time, the strike at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, thousands of workers of Freeport Indonesia gathered near the Papua mine on Monday to protest the dismissal of miners due to contract disputes with the government, double stimulus Lun copper opened high at 5800.
5 US dollars / ton, after the opening of London copper rushed to 5820 US dollars / ton, and then China announced that the Caixin manufacturing PMI in April fell back to a seven-month low.
The market long atmosphere was suppressed, and then the long market continued to flow out, copper prices fluctuated downward, gradually moving away from the daily moving average, touching the Bollinger Road middle rail of 5761.
5 US dollars / ton, began to around 5773.
5 US dollars / ton shock resistance, intraday tried to counter-draw, but subject to the pressure of the daily moving average can not continue to rise, as of 17:04, London copper reported 5771.
5 US dollars / ton
.
On the macro front, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in April was 50.
3, lower than the expected 51.
3 and down 0.
9 percentage points
from March.
The analysis believes that the main factor leading to the decline in PMI is the slowdown
in the growth of output and new orders.
Although the PMI remains above the boom and bust line, indicating that the economy is still expanding, some analysts still believe that China's economy may show a downward trend in the near future
.
Abroad, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States in April was 54.
8, lower than the expected 56.
5, and the sub-data also fell from a multi-year high, although the overall is still in the expansion range, but the growth rate has slowed down
.
Copper prices partially benefited
from the recent lack of bright US data, which allowed the dollar to hover near recent lows.
In terms of the market, Shanghai copper rose sharply by more than 500 yuan, copper value preservation plate in the early stage of the festival was set, holders pushed up the current copper premium to make up for the loss of the plate, after the high cash exchange, the market copper supply pressure increased, the brand is diverse, speculators buy the cash selling period, but because the overall market is in a wait-and-see state after the copper price rebound, consumption enthusiasm is general, the current copper premium has signs of gradual decline, downstream demand is the mainstay, cautious wait-and-see
。 In the afternoon session, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper sank slightly compared with the morning, the market inquirer increased, and the willingness to receive goods was significantly enhanced, especially the individual refiners and large traders once again took the goods, and the market shipments were still restricted, the premium was raised, flat water copper reported a premium of 10 yuan / ton - 30 yuan / ton, good copper reported a premium of 30 yuan / ton - 40 yuan / ton, the transaction price fell at a high level, at 46660 yuan / ton - 46740 yuan / ton
.
The period of copper fluctuated at a high level, and the spot premium slowly moved
up.
In terms of industry, thousands of workers of Freeport's Indonesian branch gathered near the Papua mine yesterday to protest the dismissal of miners
due to a contract dispute with the government.
The union yesterday threatened the company with a strike
at the Grasberg copper mine from May 1 until the end of the month.
The market is now once again focusing on supply-side tightening risks, and copper prices are driven
.
Overall, the global macroeconomic recovery is relatively moderate, but the tightening of funds still has a pressure on copper prices, and the downstream has always had limited access to the market during the consumption season, but it tends to end the consumption season before the end of the terminal consumption still has a supportive effect on copper prices, if the substantive impact of the strike is limited, you can look for good short selling opportunities
.
