Affected by the rise in raw material prices, aluminum prices still have upward momentum

In the third quarter of 2021, LME aluminum closed up 15.
74% month-on-month and climbed 61.
6%
year-on-year.
In the third quarter of 2021, the main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 20.
51% month-on-month and climbed 65.
57%
year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, the global aluminum explicit inventory totaled 2.
316 million tons, down 2.
71% month-on-month and -8.
41% year-on-year, and the total global aluminum inventory was at a low level
.
In the third quarter, affected by the dual control of energy conservation, the increase in aluminum prices expanded
significantly.
Global aluminum inventories also continued to fall, and terminal consumption remained strong
.

On the macro front, with the gradual approach of Taper in the United States, the short-term strengthening of the US dollar may suppress
commodity prices.
Domestic real estate investment is facing continued weakening, overseas durable goods demand has tended to fall, and the simultaneous decline in domestic and foreign demand has put pressure
on the economy.
The pressure of stable growth is increasing, and the general direction of policy combination of "tight credit, loose currency, and loose finance" will not change
.
The dual control measures for energy consumption will continue to be implemented, and the measures to limit production in the "two highs" industry will continue
.

In terms of fundamentals, the fundamentals are bullish, and the industrial electricity price in Guangdong will be adjusted from October 1, and the peak electricity price will rise by 25% in the peak section; Henan plans to implement time-of-use electricity prices
from November.
The rise in electricity prices will significantly increase the cost of
electrolytic aluminum.

Supply and demand outlook, China's alumina production decreased month-on-month, but the supply of bauxite was tight, and the price of alumina accelerated, pushing the price of primary aluminum to continue to rise
.
Affected by power cuts in various places, China's electrolytic aluminum production this year is lower than expected
at the beginning of the year.
Overseas demand is better, new energy demand is better, and aluminum exports are growing rapidly
.

Price outlook, affected by the tightness of raw materials, it is expected that alumina prices will continue to rise, and electrolytic aluminum is affected by the increase in raw material prices, and there is still upward momentum
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a volatile climbing pattern, with a fluctuation range of 20,000-24,500 yuan / ton
.