Affected by the epidemic, Shanghai aluminum continued to fall under pressure

Market focus: (1) The People's Bank of China carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 1.
2 trillion yuan within the day and lowered the interest rate by 10bp
.
(2) The United States declares a public health emergency, and non-U.
S.
citizens who have been to China 14 days prior to entry will be barred from entering the country
.
(3) SMM statistics show that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 884,000 tons, and the accumulation of 194,000 tons during the Spring Festival is 194,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons
over last year's Spring Festival.

Spot analysis: On February 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13580-13620 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13600 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market trading is light, affected by the epidemic, most traders in East China are still on vacation, and market makers are not enthusiastic
.
Holders have fewer shipments, and some middlemen have a strong enthusiasm for receiving goods considering the large discount, but due to the restrictions on warehouse pick-up/warehousing and transfer in East China, it is difficult for buyers and sellers to reach an agreement, and the actual transaction is rare
.
Most of the downstream manufacturers are still in the period of holiday shutdown, and there are very few
receipts.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 77,750 tons, an increase of 1,098 tons per day; On January 31, LME aluminum stocks were 1288350 tons, an increase of 14,025 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contracts were 65453 lots, minus 11297 lots per day, 71239 short positions, 16853 lots per day, 5786 net short positions, 5556 daily losses, long and short positions were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On February 3, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened sharply lower in 2003
.
The continued spread of the new crown virus epidemic in China and the postponement of the resumption of work of domestic downstream aluminum companies have also led to an impact on terminal demand, and the market has increased concerns about the economic outlook, but the People's Bank of China will carry out a reverse repurchase operation of 1.
2 trillion yuan on the first day after the holiday, and cut interest rates by 10bp to maintain abundant liquidity and smooth operation
of the money market during the special period of the epidemic.
At present, electrolytic aluminum stocks are still at a low level, when domestic electrolytic aluminum production rebounded, coupled with the weakening of downstream demand, it is expected to enter the inventory increase cycle, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, affected by the epidemic, most traders in East China are still on vacation, and the holders have fewer shipments, and some middlemen consider the large discount and have a strong enthusiasm for receiving goods, but the actual transaction is rare, and most of the downstream manufacturers are still in the holiday and production stoppage, and the receipt of goods is very small
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum is running at a new low in March last year, and the daily MACD indicator is dead-crossed, and it is expected that the short-term will continue to be weak
.