Affected by macro factors, the short-term shock thinking of Shanghai rubber continues

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1809 contract opening price 10290 yuan / ton, the highest price 10355 yuan / ton, the lowest price 10270 yuan / ton, the closing price 10290 yuan / ton; Up 0 yuan / ton, an increase of 0%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1812 contract is 168.
9 yen/kg, the highest price is 170.
3 yen/kg, the lowest price is 168.
2 yen/kg, and the closing price is 170 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3481 lots, and the position volume was 15811 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10000/10050 (0/+50) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation 10000/10100 (+100/+100) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10300/10350 (+100/+50) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10300 (+200) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 2590 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 485230 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 160 tons, Yunnan decreased by 40 tons, Shandong increased by 2790 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

As of July 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by about 6% to 200,100 tons
.
This is the first three months, Qingdao free trade zone rubber stocks back to 200,000 tons
.
Among them, natural rubber 78,500 tons, synthetic rubber 117,900 tons, compound rubber 03,700 tons
.

The Shanghai rubber 1809 contract was strong and volatile on Monday, and weakened overnight
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line fell back below the 60-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red column turned green; On the daily chart, the K-line is above the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continues
.
Volume increased, positions declined, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 80630 (-5692), short 109933 (-8412), net 29303 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

In the first half of this year, global tianjiao production increased by 4.
5% year-on-year to 6.
214 million tons, and the consumption of tianjiao increased by 5% to 6.
96 million tons
in the same period.
The supply gap is 746,000 tons
.
In the first six months, the output of Vietnam, Malaysia and India fell by 19.
2%, 20.
4% and 8.
1% respectively year-on-year
.
Thailand and China increased by 13.
1% and 21.
6%
respectively.

As of June, China's tianjiao consumption increased by 1.
5%, India and Thailand increased by 11.
6% and 39.
6%
respectively.
In terms of exports, from January to June, the export of tianjiao from ANRPC member countries fell by 9% year-on-year to 4.
283 million tons, of which Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia fell by 20.
6%, 4.
7% and 4%
respectively.
Vietnam grew by 14%
over the same period.
In addition, the annual production of tianjiao is expected to increase by 5.
2% to 14.
04 million tons, and consumption to increase by 5.
7% to 14.
136 million tons
.

As of the close of the night trading 09-01 spread widened to 1815 yuan / ton, the 1-9 spread has been repaired, and it is expected that there is still room
for expansion.
Plate premium whole milk spot 190-290 yuan / ton, premium mixed spot -10-90 yuan / ton, Qingdao bonded zone rubber inventory back to 200,000 tons level, exchange inventory continues to rise, high inventory is still a constraint to the price of Shanghai rubber, after the convergence of the current price difference, the momentum of the deep decline again weakened, but the fundamentals still lack upward support momentum, from the international tire giants Michelin and Goodyear in the first half of the year of the operating situation, global tire demand and the domestic market have signs of weakening
。 The National Assembly set the general tone
for the policy for the second half of the year.
The final policy combination is wide fiscal + wide currency + wide credit + stable infrastructure + stable leverage
.
For the market, expectations of a shift in policy easing were established and reinforced; Loose economic policies may have a positive impact
on rubber demand in the second half of the year.
Overall, it is still oscillating on the 10000-10500 platform, affected by macro uncertainties, and the short-term shock idea continues
.