A summary of poultry meat market in China in the first half of 2002 and its prospect in the second half of 2002

Introduction: new page 1 in the second quarter of 2002, poultry production in China increased compared with the same period last year In the first half of the year, the price of domestic chicken and live chicken dropped seasonally, and the price of American chicken began to rise From January to May 2002, the import and export of poultry meat and edible offal decreased significantly In the second half of the year, it is expected that the price of Broilers and chicken in China will remain low, the price of poultry in the international market will continue to rise, and the export situation of poultry to Japan in China is still not optimistic LUT 1 Compared with the same period last year, the poultry production in China increased in the second quarter of 2002 LUT in the second quarter of 2002 was 6.956 million tons, an increase of 8.45% over the same period last year In the second quarter, there were 19 provinces (cities and districts) that produced more than 100000 tons of poultry meat Among them, the top five provinces in poultry meat production are Shandong (1.915 million tons), Guangdong (633100 tons), Sichuan (615000 tons), Jiangsu (479900 tons) and Hebei (442400 tons), accounting for 17.13%, 9.10%, 8.84%, 6.90% and 6.34% of China's total poultry meat production, respectively The total output of poultry meat in provinces accounts for 48.33% of the total output of poultry meat in China In the second and first half of 2002, the price of domestic chicken and live chicken decreased seasonally In the second quarter of 2002, the average price of Chinese suit chicken was 9.42 yuan / kg, 2.92% lower than that in the first quarter Among them, the retail price of suit chicken in 11 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, including Chongqing and Sichuan, showed an upward trend, while the retail price of suit chicken in 17 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, including Zhejiang and Shanxi, showed a downward trend, while the retail price of suit chicken in Jilin Province basically remained unchanged In the second quarter of 2002, the average retail price of live chicken in China was 8.94 yuan / kg, 3.72% lower than that in the first quarter Among them, the retail price of live chicken in 22 provinces fell to different degrees, with the price in 6 provinces falling by more than 10%, while the retail price of live chicken in Ningxia and Anhui provinces fell by more than 20% In the first half of 2002, the average retail price of suit chicken in China was 9.96 yuan / kg, down 1.13% compared with the same period last year; in the first half of 2002, the average retail price of live chicken in China reached 9.13 yuan / kg, up 4.86% compared with the same period last year Third, the U.S chicken price began to rise The U.S is the world's largest chicken exporter, which has a great impact on the world market chicken price In the second quarter of 2002, the price of U.S chicken began to rise In June 2002, the average wholesale price of chicken in 12 cities in the United States increased by 5.14% compared with March, and the wholesale price of chicken at George's Asian terminal in June increased by 3.29% compared with March LUT 4 The import and export of poultry meat and edible offal in China decreased significantly LUT From January to May 2002, the total export of poultry meat and edible offal in China was 108415 tons, a decrease of 42.50% over the same period last year Among them, 43279 tons were exported to Japan, down 60.63% compared with the same period last year; 24090 tons were exported to Hong Kong, up 41.79% compared with the same period last year; 9598 tons were exported to Saudi Arabia, down 25.75% compared with the same period last year From January to May 2002, the import volume of poultry meat and edible offal in China was 229508 tons, a decrease of 22.57% over the same period last year Among them, 205959 tons were imported from the United States, down 8.64% year-on-year; 336 tons from Canada, down 95.55% year-on-year; 3448 tons from Argentina, down 38.93% year-on-year; 3625 tons from Thailand, down 43.63% year-on-year In the fifth and second half of the year, it is expected that the price of rout (I) broilers will keep low Although the price of rout (I) broilers will increase in the first quarter, with the decrease of the price of chicken and live chicken, especially the recent increase of the price of broiler compound feed, the benefit of chicken raising will begin to decline, the demand for broilers will correspondingly decrease, and the price will fall It is expected that after the listing of summer food, the price of broiler feed may fall down However, due to the increase of domestic chicken production, the decrease of export and the slow growth of consumption, there is little room for the price of chicken to rise in China in the future, which will affect the price of broiler Raut (2) the price of poultry in the international market will continue to rise 1 The price of poultry in the United States will rise Russia will partially resume the import of poultry from the United States from April 15, 2002, but still announce the prohibition of raut from Maine, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania in the next six months Poultry meat was imported because meat imported from these States was found to be infected with the avian influenza virus In addition, Russia has refused to import poultry from 14 US manufacturers whose products have been tested to be infected with salmonellosis Russia has decided to adopt new quarantine standards for poultry imported from the US in the future Over the next three months, the United States and Russia held many consultations on the new quarantine standards, but they failed until July 25 this year when the two sides reached an agreement by telephone This marks the end of Russia's ban on poultry meat in the United States, and the price of poultry meat in the United States will continue to rise as exports grow Raut 2 The price of Japanese chicken will stop falling sharply In Japan, a large number of broilers are sick or dead due to the continuous heat In addition, the typhoon has also brought great losses to the chicken farms in the northeast of Japan, which will help to improve the situation of oversupply of Japanese chicken According to July 20 (Japan Economic News), the wholesale price of chicken in the Japanese market has stopped falling In addition, Japanese chicken importers have noticed the recent increase in Japanese stocks and are negotiating with foreign exporters to avoid excessive concentration of chicken deliveries It is expected that the current weak wholesale price of imported chicken will gradually recover and increase with the adjustment of inventory quantity Raut (3) the export situation of poultry meat to Japan is still not optimistic Raut Japan is the main export country of poultry meat in China At present, Japan's export of poultry meat is still restricted by Japan's technical barriers, which makes it difficult for Japan to export poultry meat In addition, due to the wrong estimation of the situation by Japanese chicken importers during the world cup, the import of chicken was excessive, resulting in a sharp increase in the inventory, which has reached a record high It is worth noting that at present, there are also imported chicken sold since the end of 2001, which are being shipped to Japan in succession, thus limiting the import of Japanese chicken in the second half of the year In the second half of the year, the export of poultry meat from China to Japan is still not optimistic Raut (4) in the second half of the year, the price of chicken in China will remain depressed This year, the export of poultry meat in China has declined significantly, but the output is still growing rapidly at the rate of about 8%, and the domestic consumption demand is limited In the second half of the year, the supply of poultry meat in China still puts great pressure on the price, and there is little room for the price of poultry meat to rise In addition, the arrival of the summer harvest season will also cause the price of chicken feed to fall, giving chicken more room for price reduction Therefore, the price of poultry meat in China is expected to keep a low level in the second half of the year Nie Fengying, Wang Ping, raut