A glimpse into the tight supply pattern of the oil market from the price of U.S. crude oil futures

According to foreign news on January 6, it can be seen from the price of US crude oil futures that crude oil supply will remain tight at the beginning of the new year, even if the outbreak of the Omikoron variant, which may weaken energy consumption demand, will not end soon
.


Tighter supply in the oil market may cause oil prices to rise
.
Despite OPEC's insistence on raising output, U.
S.
drillers have been reluctant to increase output
.
Energy consumption has now rebounded from the lows during the epidemic, resulting in a relatively steady decline in crude oil inventories
.


Nearer-month U.
S.
crude futures contracts were higher than far-month contracts, suggesting a near-term increase in demand
.
Crude oil for June delivery was $4.
10 a barrel above the December contract, the most since Nov.
2
.


  For the December contract, it was about $5.
70 a barrel higher than the December 2023 contract, the largest premium since Nov.
3
.


  "Supply is a little tight," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC
.
"We're going to reconsider the relative tightness in the coming weeks
.
"

  By the end of last year, U.
S.
crude inventories were running low, according to the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA).
It fell for six straight weeks to 417.
9 million barrels, the lowest level since September
.


  Many analysts are predicting that crude oil inventories will not increase significantly anytime soon
.


  OPEC producers failed to fully comply with planned output increases in December, a survey released on Thursday showed
.


  As demand recovers, OPEC is gradually easing the production cuts it introduced in 2020
.
But many smaller producers have been unable to raise output, and some are concerned about increasing output amid the spread of the virus
.


  Meanwhile, U.
S.
crude production remains below the record high of 13 million bpd set at the end of 2019, with a four-week average of around 11.
7 million bpd, EIA data showed
.


  Although crude oil futures markets paused in late November, prices rose again in December
.


  The four-week average of apparent U.
S.
energy demand rose to 21.
4 million bpd in the week ended Dec.
24, the highest since 2019 (except for the week in September this year), EIA data showed
.


  "Demand has exceeded all expectations,
" said John Saucer, vice president of Mobius Risk Group.