2021 in review: analysis of the global oilseed market by major international institutions

News on December 28: With the end of 2021, oilseed prices have fallen from historical highs.
The main short-term drivers include the market’s concern about the rapid spread of Omi Keron mutant strains.
There are signs that as more Many countries have re-implemented blockades and restrictions on catering services , and demand is slowing down
.

 

　　The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) stated in its December 2 Food Price Index report that global vegetable oil prices fell 0.
2% in November from the record high set in October
.
This reflects a slight decline in the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil, while palm oil quotations have remained almost unchanged
.
The downward pressure on international palm oil prices in November was related to the increased fears of a re-emergence of the new crown epidemic, but was largely offset by the expected decline in production in major palm oil producing countries
.
As far as soybean oil and rapeseed oil are concerned, world prices have declined moderately, and have generally weakened due to the adjustment of demand
.
The drop in crude oil prices also weighed on vegetable oil prices
.

 

　　The International Grain Council (IGC) stated in its November 18 grain market report that the soybean price index was almost flat from the previous month
.
The huge supply outlook and weaker soybean oil prices constitute pressure, but export demand provides support
.
The IGC said that Chicago soybean futures fluctuated sideways and rose moderately
.
Throughout November, the soybean market was under pressure from the prospect of record global production because of the bumper soybean harvest in the United States and the weather in most parts of Brazil that favored the rapid advancement of planting
.
The sharp drop in soybean oil prices also brought pressure
.
However, with the recent increase in processing profits, the pace of international exports, including to China, has accelerated, supporting soybean prices
.
However, due to the month-on-month decline in the basis of the US Gulf, the FOB export quotation of US soybeans fell by 1%, averaging US$504 per ton
.
The IGC stated that the FOB price of spot soybean exports from Brazil (Paranagua) fell by 2% to US$516/ton B because the rapid progress in planting has suppressed market sentiment
.
The IGC said that with the approaching record harvest, the (Brazilian soybean) premium has fallen, which is also related to farmers selling old crops to free up stocks for new crops
.
In Argentina, the nominal price of soybeans strengthened slightly from the previous month, and the FOB price of Shanghe was US$556 per ton.
Despite the pressure of exchange rate fluctuations, the fundamentals are relatively tight, which helps limit the downside of soybean prices
.

 

　　In terms of rapeseed, the IGC reported that, supported by fundamentals, ICE's Canadian rapeseed futures rose 6% from the previous month, but weakness in soybeans and vegetable oils limited the increase in rapeseed
.
FOB offers for Canadian rapeseed at the Port of Vancouver rose by US$42 to US$869 per ton
.
According to the IGC, Euronext's rapeseed futures fell nearly 1% month-on-month due to the listing of new rapeseeds in Europe, the expansion of the winter rapeseed planting area in 2022/23, and the decline in other oilseeds and manufactured goods markets.
Pressure
.
In Australia, the FOB export price of Australian rapeseed in Kwinana fell by US$36 to US$742 per ton under pressure from the launch of new crops
.

 

　　A report written on December 16th by Will Lingaros, head of ADM's UK oilseeds business, stated that Chicago soybean prices are “strongly supported by rising soybean meal prices
.
As usage starts to increase, soybean meal supplies are tight
.
In addition, As time enters 2022, the weather in South America will be closely watched
.