10 domestic 1 class of new drugs "on the market take off"! It's sunny, Hengrui, Howson is on

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1：2018-20201（）

Source: Meinenet MED2.

Table 2: 10 Class 1 innovative drugs that went on the market from 2018 to 2020 and have rapid sales growth

Note: 2020 sales are based on H1 data of Chinese public medical institutions + annual forecast data of physical pharmacies in Chinese cities

Source: Minet database

Among the newly approved Class 1 new drugs with rapid sales growth from 2018 to 2020, the sales of most new drugs in the physical pharmacy terminals of Chinese cities in the first year of listing are higher than the sales of public medical institutions in China, which shows that they have just been approved.

The growth rate of Anlotinib slows down after the "outbreak", and the fourth indication has been approved

Among the innovative drugs that have been on the market in the past three years, the most dazzling sales is CP Tianqing's Anlotinib.

In the first half of 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the growth momentum of Anlotinib slowed down slightly.

Prior to this, Anlotinib has been approved in China for the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer, soft tissue sarcoma and small cell lung cancer.

It can be seen that Anlotinib has officially become CP Tianqing’s fist variety, and continues to inject fresh blood into the company's innovative research and development.

Four PD-1 "Fairy Racing", the total may exceed 10 billion yuan

After the "wave of approvals" for PD-1 drugs, the marketization of several domestically-made PD-1 drugs has become the focus of the industry.

According to BeiGene's 2020 Q3 financial report, tislelizumab Q3 achieved global sales of 49.

The action of tislelizumab on January 12, 2021 is also worthy of attention.

At the end of 2020, the PD-1 of the three Chinese local companies of Junshi Bio-Treprizumab, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Carrelizumab, and BeiGene Tilelizumab will enter the 2020 National Medical Insurance Drugs.

The growth of oncology drugs is strong, and other innovative drugs may be difficult to enter the hospital market

Except for Anlotinib and the four PD-1 models, only Hausen's Ametinib was the only company whose sales in the first year of the market quickly exceeded 100 million.

Hausen's other innovative drug, polyethylene glycol loxenatide, had sales of more than 70 million in the second year after its launch.

Fabojin's anti-anemia drug Roxastat capsule was approved for marketing on December 21, 2018.

Sales of Gallite Pharmaceutical's oral hepatitis C drug danorevir are in trouble.

Zai Lab's niraparib p-toluenesulfonate is the first indigenous PARP inhibitor and was approved for marketing at the end of December 2019.

The prediction of the new drug market has become a problem, and Wall Street's predictions have been distorted in the past 15 years

At a time when domestic biomedical innovation is in full swing and approved drugs are mushrooming, assessing the marketization potential of new drugs and predicting the sales curve will gradually become a topic of common concern for Chinese pharmaceutical companies and investors.

However, predicting the sales of new drugs has always been difficult, even for mature European and American markets.
According to Fierce Pharma, a western medical media, half of the drugs launched in the United States since 2004 are more than 20% lower than Wall Street’s expected sales.
Among them, more than half of cardiovascular drugs, immunological drugs and 48% of anti-infective drugs failed to meet analysts' expectations, while only 38% of oncology drugs did not meet analysts' forecasts.

According to industry insiders, analysts and small biotech companies tend to underestimate the cost of education and training for clinicians to issue new prescriptions, and overestimate the acceptance of clinical trial data of the product among doctors.
From another point of view, however, it is not so much that the sales of new drugs have not met expectations, as it is that the forecasting model has a deviation from the current market situation.

In addition, the report pointed out that BigPharma has better resource allocation and commercialization capabilities than small biotech companies, and the average peak sales volume is 50% higher than that of small companies.
This trend is also reflected in the sales of Chinese innovative drugs after approval.
Companies such as Hengrui, Zhengda Tianqing, BeiGene, and Hausen not only lead the industry in terms of innovation investment, but also have extremely professional marketing teams.
The earth has promoted the marketization of new drugs, and the steady growth in sales has also continuously injected blood for innovation and reinvestment.

In short, in the domestic market, not only the innovative drugs have just started, the research on the marketization strategy of innovative drugs, including hospital promotion and marketing, participation in national medical insurance negotiations and centralized procurement, etc.
, is also being actively explored by leading companies.
For medical people or investors who are concerned about market trends, how to predict the market more accurately and judge the potential space for sales of innovative drugs is a question worthy of the industry's continuous exploration in the next few years.

Source: Minet database